Bank of Canada will likely defer an interest rate
|English: Clockwise from top-left: Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada (Note: Uploaded for use on Wikinews) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)|
The central bank will stay put at next week's policy decision, according to the poll of 41 economists, leaving its key interest rate on hold until the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly later than forecast in a Reuters poll in October.
Recent comments from BOC Governor and his officials on how close to capacity the Canadian economy was operating triggered some of the forecast changes.
"They've been arguing that the amount of excess slack in the economy has been understated thus far, and if that's what they believe, then that would argue for a later tightening," said Andrew Kelvin, senior fixed-income strategist at TD Securities.
Kelvin also pointed to disappointing growth in the third quarter and to low oil prices.
The latest poll results come alongside wavering expectations that the will raise its key interest rate from a record low by the middle of next year and perhaps instead wait until later in the year.
Once the does start hiking rates, the poll forecast follow-up quarter-point hikes in each of the first two quarters of 2016.
Canada's headline and core inflation rates overshot the Bank's 2 percent target in October, at 2.4 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, while unemployment rate dropped to a six-year low of 6.5 percent.
is expected to continue to sound dovish at next week's meeting and shrug off inflationary pressures as temporary, the poll found.
TD analysts said will need to address the jump in inflation, but is likely to place more emphasis on labor market slack.
The central bank dropped its guidance on the direction of interest rates at the last policy meeting in a bid to curb parsing of its policy statements and market volatility.
But that has not resulted in clearer policy, according to the 25 forecasters who answered that question in the Reuters poll. A slim majority said it has led to less clarity instead; none thought there clarity had been improved.